Calculate Implied Probability
The true probability priced into one or more sets of odds.
How to Use This Calculator
- Set your odds format (Decimal, Fractional, or American)
- Punch in odds for at least two outcomes (say, Team A and Team B)
- Tack on extra outcomes when you need them (like a draw in soccer)
- Instantly read implied probability per outcome, the total probability, and the bookmaker margin
Whenever total implied probability tops 100%, that overflow is the bookmaker’s margin.
Formula
Implied Probability from Decimal Odds: Probability = (1 / Decimal Odds) x 100%
Bookmaker Margin: Margin = Total Implied Probability - 100%
No-Vig (Fair) Probability: Fair Probability = Implied Probability / Total Implied Probability
Frequently Asked Questions
What does implied probability mean?
Implied probability is how likely an outcome is according to the odds. It bakes in the bookmaker’s margin, which is why the total always lands above 100%.
What exactly is the bookmaker margin?
The bookmaker margin, also called vig or juice, is the gap between the total implied probabilities and 100%. That gap is the bookmaker’s locked-in profit.
How do I spot value bets?
When you reckon the true probability of an outcome beats the implied probability baked into the odds, that bet carries positive expected value.